Recent events along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border have raised alarm abroad about possible escalation of hostilities between the two countries. Although no direct evidence is known of Bangladesh gearing up for an all-out armed attack on Myanmar, there are signs of heightened regional activity worthy of examination in greater detail.
Background of the Crisis
The bilateral relations between these two countries, Myanmar and Bangladesh, have been strained for a very long time and the Rohingya crisis has been the prime mover behind it all. More than a million Rohingya refugees who had migrated from Myanmar's Rakhine State after being persecuted and attacked entered into Bangladesh since 2017. The crisis pushed Bangladesh to the limit and unfolded political and social tensions.
Adding to the problems, Myanmar's internal conflict has also been growing in intensity, with different ethnic armed groups, including the Arakan Army, holding territory along Rakhine State borders. Arakan Army influence now spans the entire 270-kilometer Myanmar-Bangladesh border and thus is an explosive border.
Assertions of Covert Operations
It has come to light that Bangladesh is reportedly going to engage in covert action within Myanmar under what is perceived as United States guidance. Allegedly, its actions include delivery of logistics support to ethnic insurgents against the regime of Myanmar and equipment supply alongside deploying drones. No confirmation if any Bangladeshi military troops have directly been involved in actual combat efforts.
This policy, being genuine, is in the larger interests of Bangladesh in the sense that it aims to maintain regional stability and respond to the security threat being posed by the military adventure of Myanmar. In terms of supporting opposition parties, Bangladesh could be trying to counterbalance the aggressive posturing of Myanmar and reduce the spill-over effects of domestic conflict.
Increased Border Security
To undo the increasing instability, Bangladesh has proactively strengthened its border. Bangladesh is faced with the twin challenge of containing the influx of refugees and putting an end to cross-border infiltration by armed militias. Increased vigilance and deploying more troops into action have become a key aspect of Bangladesh's policy to guarantee territorial integrity.
International Implications
The changing equilibriums across the Bangladesh-Myanmar border have been under global focus. The United Nations and other international actors continue to urge peaceful settlement of the conflict in Myanmar and safeguarding of the displaced citizens. Regional actors and international actors are meanwhile keenly watching Bangladesh's move, sensing the possible high stakes implications for regional geopolitical stability in South Asia.
A Path Forward
Though the situation is fragile, immediate military conflict between Myanmar and Bangladesh does not seem to be in the offing. Both countries stand to lose too much economically, if not internationally. Yet, the ongoing humanitarian crisis as well as the strategic maneuvering in both directions only goes to highlight the importance of diplomatic effort and dispute resolution processes.
The global community must take the lead in intervening and playing the role of intermediaries between the two countries, identifying the true roots of the Rohingya crisis, and promoting long-term frameworks for stability and peace in the region. In the case of Bangladesh, dealing with these issues is balancing on the tight rope between its nation's national security needs and maintaining its humanitarian agenda.
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